Wednesday, February 22, 2017

China January 2017

Image result for saic e950 specs
SAIC managed to pull all the 5 meters of its e950 to the Top 10

Incentives drag the market down

The Chinese market had 6.260 new EV's in January, far from the 15.275 units of January 2016, dragging down the Plug-in Market Share to just 0.25%, frankly below the 1.45% of 2016.

Considering the seasonality of the Chinese PEV Market, where the first quarter is always the slowest selling, due to the December sales rush and the New Year holidays, a considerable month-on-month drop was already expected, for example in December 2015 sales reached 35.000, dropping to 15.000 in the following month, what surprised experts was the size of the fall, 6.260 units is setting back the market two years, the reasons for this unexpected drop will be explained below, for now let’s focus on last month registrations.

In January SAIC and BAIC took over the top positions, with Tesla benefitting from the local sales drought to post a best ever Fifth Position.

Here are the last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

  
Related image
#1 – SAIC Roewe e550: Shangai-based SAIC won its first Monthly Best Seller trophy last month, thanks to the 956 registrations of its e550, the plug-in hybrid version of Roewe’s Audi A4-sized 550 ICE model. This plug-in hybrid packs a 11.8kWh LiFePO4 battery, delivering an all-electric range of 58 km (36 mi), for a price of CNY 249.000, or some USD 36.200. Despite winning the yellow jersey in the first stage of the race, don’t expect this model to stay on top for long, once the incentives effect wanes and BYD gets their act together, the e550 should be easily displaced from the podium, a bit like Mark Cavendish in the last year Tour de France.

  
Image result for baic eU260
#2 – BAIC EU260: In the midst of the incentives drop, the BAIC EU260 got off to a good start, with 812 units being delivered, winning precious advantage over the BYD champs, something that could prove crucial in the final stages of 2017, when racing for the yellow jersey. With a generous 41.4 kWh battery, 260 kms range and 136 hp pulling it to an acceleration 0-100kmh in 9 seconds, it doesn’t have the Sports Sedan aspirations of the BYD Qin EV300, but it’s no slouch. Undercutting the aforementioned Qin EV 300 by some 5.000 Yuan (CNY 255.000), this is one of the most serious candidates for the 2017 Best Seller title.


Image result for baic ec180
#3 – BAIC EC180: After being shown last November, the little city car got off to a great start in December, after selling 4.128 units, now it registered another 724 units last month. This city car has the advantage of offering a faux-crossover look, ok interiors and a usable 180 kms range, thanks to a 20.3 kWh battery. BAIC has great ambitions for this, promising more models from the same platform. Now, about those subsidies…


 Image result for jmc e100 specs
#4 – JMC E100: If the Chinese government has its way, this is representative of a dying breed, the bargain-basement JMC E100 city car still managed to deliver 701 units in January, so these little buggers will probably keep on zooming around for quite some time.


Image result for tesla model x in china
#5 – Tesla Model X: Y’all know this one right? With a number of logistical issues happening in December, which lead to a sizeable number of Model X’s being only delivered in January, we estimate that the Tesla Model X had some 624 registrations last month, which together with the current incentives standoff, helped the Californian SUV to reach the Fifth Spot in the Chinese PEV ranking, a best ever position for a foreign model. Now don’t you worry Tesla shorters, this is most certainly a freak event and doesn’t mean that Tesla has finally broken the Chinese market.
  

Looking elsewhere, both SAIC and JMC placed a second model in the Top 10, with the Shanghai Auto model pulling its e950 large sedan, a 289k Yuan (USD 42.000) PHEV based on the 2010 Buick Lacrosse(!), to Seventh Place.

But the real news are the low, low numbers of BYD models, with the #8 BYD Tang being the best of them, but with only 278 deliveries, one has to go back four years to find such low numbers for the manufacturer. Rumors say that the Chinese manufacturer is preparing new batteries, with different chemistry (NMC?), considering that BAIC and SAIC weren’t so affected by the incentives delay, it seems BYD took this waiting period to make big changes, we just have to wait and see what was the cause for this slump.

Looking at January manufacturers ranking, the surprise leader is BAIC, with 26% share, followed by SAIC Roewe (23%) and JMC (18%).

Interestingly, Tesla ended the month ahead (Fourth, with 12%) of BYD (Fifth, 9%), which says a lot about the strangeness of the current Chinese ranking. Then again, these are strange times…



Pl
China
Jan.
YTD
%
1
SAIC Roewe e550
956
956
15
2
BAIC EU260
812
812
13
3
BAIC EC180
712
712
12
4
JMC E100
701
701
11
5
6
Tesla Model X e)
JMC E200
624
424
624
424
10
7
7
SAIC Roewe e950
350
350
6
8
BYD Tang
278
278
4
9
BYD Qin
208
208
3
10

Changan Benni EV
Others
202
993
202
993
3
16
TOTAL Market
6.260
6.260
100

e) Estimate



2017 Outlook

Looking forward, the Chinese government set a goal of 2 million New Energy Vehicles (NEV = BEV + PHEV + FCEV) in 2020, considering 2016 ended with already 1 million NEV fleet, one would only need some 300.000 per year to reach the desired objective, an easy task.

But with subsidies set to be cut off by 20% each year, and more demanding conditions (Safer cars, larger range, highway capability…) for eligibility, a large portion of the market, eg, ultra-cheap city cars, will suffer with these developments, because they will struggle to have access to subsidies, but they are not alone, as regular EV’s also loose part of the price advantage given by generous incentives.

The solution to offset the incentives cut will be dropping costs through scale, and that game can only be played by a number of OEMs, like BYD, BAIC, SAIC or Geely.

Ultimately the Chinese EV industry will benefit, because it will have less, but stronger players, more ready to take on foreign manufacturers head on, but sacrificing on the way a fast transition to plug-ins, so what January showed us is that:

A) The market will become more concentrated, with the top manufacturers distancing themselves from the others;

B) Volume numbers will suffer, especially in the first quarter, with the remaining quarters probably recovering the lost time, but don’t expect the ludicrous growth rates of 100% or so of the past three years to be repeated in the short term.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Italy January 2016

Image result for Renault Zoe in Italy
The French hatch quietly takes over Italy

Renault Zoe Starts in the Lead

Last month the Italian EV market surged 111% YoY, to 388 units, its best result in almost two years, with the EV share jumping to 0,23%.

While growth is always good, especially in a stagnant market like this one, most of it comes from PHEVs, which are growing 200%, becoming for the first time the majority of sales.

Looking at the models ranking, the first leader of the year was the Renault Zoe, now benefiting from the ZE40 kick, with 64 registrations, followed by another small BEV with a battery upgrade, the BMW i3, and Third we have the veteran Citröen C-Zero, with a surprising 47 registrations, no doubt connected to a fleet deal (Car Sharing?).

Below in the ranking, the #4 Mercedes GLC350e was the best selling plug-in hybrid, with 46 units, a great start for the Mercedes SUV, which goes in line with the current trends in Europe.

A mention to the Tesla Model X, delivering a record 11 units, outrunning its Model S sibling for the first time.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW is in the lead, with 27% Share, followed by Renault (15%), and Mercedes (11%). It seems the Three Pointed Star is finally going all in, will we see it run for the leadership?

Pl
ItalyJan.     YTD%'16Pl
1Renault Zoe6464156
2
3
4
5
BMW i3 *
Citröen C-Zero
Mercedes GLC350e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
48
47
46
31
48
47
46
31
11
11
10
7
5
8
25
2
6
7
8
Nissan Leaf
BMW 330e
Volvo XC90 T8
29
24
16
29
24
16
7
5
4
1
9
12
9
Audi A3 e-Tron15153
19
10
11
12
BMW X5 40e
Tesla Model X
Tesla Model S
12
11
9
12
11
9
3
2
2
13
26
4
13
14
14
16
17
17
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Volkswagen Golf GTE
BMW 740e
Volkswagen e-Up!
Citroen E-Mehari
Mercedes C350e
6
5
5
3
2
2
6
5
5
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
24
7
21
18
33
36
17Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV22010
17
21
21
21
21
Porsche Cayenne Plug-in
Ford Focus Electric
Kia Soul EV
Mercedes B250e
Mercedes E350e
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
20
39
31
11
N/A
21Mercedes GLE500e11027
21
21
21
21
Mercedes S500e
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Volkswagen Passat GTE
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
34
29
17
14

TOTAL388388100

e) Estimate

Source: greenstart.it; unrae.it

* - 12 Bev + 36 Rex

Friday, February 17, 2017

Austria January 2017

Image result for BMW i3 Renault Zoe
Charging for another duel

Renault Zoe Shines, VW e-Golf sinks


Austrian plug-in sales were up 35% YoY to 412 new EV's in January, placing the EV Share at a record 1,64%.

Looking at the models ranking, the podium positions remained unchanged, with the Renault Zoe (104 units, best result in 10 months) in the lead, thanks to the start of mass deliveries of the ZE 40 version, behind it the French hatchback has its arch-rival, called BMW i3, with 94 units, while the Tesla Model S started the year in Third Place, with 37 units. 

Looking elsewhere, the VW e-Golf had its worst month in two years, with only two deliveries, no doubt due to the improved version being just a couple of months away.

In the manufacturers ranking, Renault  (25% Share) started as leader, but with last year winner BMW (24%) right behind, it looks to be another entertaining year to look at, with the Third Placed Tesla (13%) looking at the duel from a far. 

PlAustriaJan.YTD%'16Pl
1Renault Zoe104104251
2
3
4
BMW i3 *
Tesla Model S
Kia Soul EV
94
37
24
94
37
24
22
9
6
2
3
8
5Nissan Leaf232365
6Audi Q7 e-Tron e)202057
7
8
8
10
11
12
Tesla Model X
Volvo XC90 T8 e)
Mercedes B250e
Volkswagen e-Up!
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer e)
16
15
15
8
7
5
16
15
15
8
7
5
4
4
4
2
2
1
10
11
6
15
19
9
12Peugeot iOn55
1
24
12BMW X5 40e   e)55123
12
Mercedes GLC350e  e) 5
5
1
31
12
Mercedes C350e  e)5
5
1
12
12
12
12
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV  e)
Volkswagen Passat GTE e)
Volkswagen Golf GTE e)
5
5
5
5
5
5
1
1
1
14
15
13
20
20
22
23
Citröen C-Zero
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Volkswagen e-Golf
BMW i8
3
3
2
1
3
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
25
27
4
21

TOTAL412412100

Source: http://myampera.wordpress.com

* - 92 BEV + 2 REX

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Switzerland January 2017

Image result for bmw i3 vs renault zoe switzerland
Ready, Set, Go!


BMW i3 vs Zoe 


The Swiss EV market registered some 500 units last month, up 20% YoY, with the EV Share up to a record 2.7%.

The BMW i3 started the year in the lead, with 86 units, followed by its subcompact arch-rival, the French Zoe, with 70 units.

Tesla placed their nameplates right behind the top two, this time with the Model X (54 units) outrunning its Model S (49) sibling.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (34%) jumped to First, with is First, followed by Tesla (19%) and
Renault (13%).

PlSwitzerlandJan.YTD%'16Pl
1
2
3
BMW i3
Renault Zoe
Tesla Model X
86
70
54
86
70
54
17
13
10
2
4
5
4
5
Tesla Model S
BMW 330e  e)
49
30
49
30
9
6
1
12
6
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer e)
25
25
5
16
6BMW X5 40e  e)2525512
8Audi A3 e-Tron e)202043
8
8
Audi Q7 e-Tron e)
Volkswagen Golf GTE e)
20
20
20
20
4
4
25
6
8
12
13
13
13
Volkswagen Passat GTE e)
Nissan Leaf
Mercedes C350e  e)
Mercedes GLC350e  e)
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV  e)
20
17
10
10
10
20
17
10
10
10
4
3
2
2
2
11
10
18
29
7
13
13
18
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In e)
Volvo XC90 PHEV e)
Hyundai Ioniq Electric e)
10
10
8
10
10
8
2
2
2
8
15
26
19
19
19
Mercedes B250e  e)
Volkswagen e-Up! e)
BMW 740e e)
5
5
5
5
5
5
1
1
1
9
27
34
19Mercedes E350e  e)551N/A
19Mercedes GLE500e  e)55130
24Peugeot iOn33128
24
26
26
28
28
Kia Soul EV  e)
BMW i8
Citröen C-Zero
Citröen e-Mehari
Mitsubishi I-Miev
3
2
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
12
21
24
33
22

TOTAL531531100

e) Estimate

Source: auto-suisse.ch

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

China PHEV Buses 2016

Image result for PHEV Bus China

Complementing this report, which focused solely on BEV Buses, with PHEV sales data now in hand, we have a clearer picture of where the eBuses market is going in China, while BEV buses continued to grow in 2016, albeit in a more moderate rate, last year PHEV buses have actually seen their sales decrease.

Has PHEV technology peaked in 2015, like HEVs did in 2013?


China Buses by Technology



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


BEV 1904 1672 12760 94260 115700

PHEV 313 2637 16500 23051 19376


HEV 5825 6111 797