Monday, February 19, 2018

Norway January 2018

Image result for i3 vs zoe vs egolf

BEVs to Power

After Sweden, we cross to the neighboring Norway, the template for EV adoption, where something unusual has happened this January, with the Norwegian mainstream market dropping 30%, despite no apparent economic disruption.

To understand this number, we have to look at the overall fuels share, in January, despite dropping 7% YoY, BEVs registered a record 23% share, staying only behind regular gas cars (26% share) as the best selling fuel source, but PHEVs stumbled 40% in sales, to just 17% share, with the announced demise of diesel-powered cars continuing, scoring only 20% share (Down from 24%, a year ago), placing diesel behind BEVs, with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs, which have fell in line with the market.

What does this all mean? Basically, people are either waiting for new BEVs to arrive (Leaf II, Model 3, Kona BEV, etc) or in line to get a BEV from the current best-sellers (i3, e-Golf, Zoe), with the remaining models, including PHEVs, suffering with the current seismic changes. Do not be surprised if in a few months BEVs become the best selling fuel source...

Looking at the current crop of Best Sellers, there is a significant difference between the podium bearers and the Fourth Placed Hyundai Ioniq Electric, which probably has more to do with the chronic production constraints of the Korean model, than lack of demand.

In the remaining 16 positions, we see a tide of PHEVs, with only the quirky #9 Kia Soul EV and both Teslas belonging to the BEV team, making it only seven BEVs in the Top 20, when this technology outsold PHEVs by 3 to 2. The reason for this paradox? BEV sales are more concentrated, as there are less models to choose and even less if we restrict the choice to appealing nameplates, reading from this Top 20, they are just 4 models (The Top 4), with the Kia Soul EV satisfying a specific customer niche (City drivers with utility high on their priority list) and the Teslas going after wealthier wallets.

Looking elsewhere, January is usually a slow selling month, but nevertheless the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins scored 145 units, allowing it a Sixth Place, allowing it even to outsell the current Volvo shining star, the XC60 PHEV (135 units).
In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner Volkswagen (22%) is in Second Place, surpassed by BMW (24%), with the Third Spot going to Volvo, with 12%.

BMW i361461417
VW e-Golf51451414
Renault Zoe3343349
4Hyundai Ioniq BEV1701705
BMW 225xe Active Tourer1541544
6Volvo S/V90 PHEV1451454
7VW Passat GTE1411414
8Volvo XC60 PHEV1351354
9Kia Soul EV1191193
10VW Golf GTE1151153
11Tesla Model S1101103
12Tesla Model X1051053
12Mitsu. Outlander PHEV1051053
14Kia Niro PHEV1031033
15Kia Optima PHEV63632
16Audi A3 e-Tron62622
16Mercedes GLC350e62622
18Mini Countryman PHEV61612
19Volvo V60 PHEV58582
20Volvo XC90 PHEV57572

Sources: Ofvas and Elbil

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

1BMW i3614
2VW e-Golf514
3Renault Zoe334
4Toyota Yaris319
Toyota Auris
Toyota RAV4
Toyota C-HR
Hyundai Ioniq BEV
Peugeot 3008
Peugeot 5008
Ford Fiesta
With 40% PEV share, the general market is showing the electric road in unstoppable, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have four HEVs, four BEVs, with no PHEVs in sight.

It seems plug-in hybrids are suffering more than expected from the current BEV-fever, which might prove that their role as stop-gap technology into full EV is being proven.
This month the Toyota hybrids had a major comeback, with all four of them joining the Top 10, while at the bottom we see fresh faces, with the Ford Fiesta(?!?), and the Peugeot Crossovers climbing in the Best Sellers train.
After September having been the first "NO ICE" Top 10 month ever, will we see the same happening in March? I wouldn't bet against it.

Sweden January 2018

Resultado de imagem para Volvo V90 PHEV
With the PEV market going mainstream in Sweden, expect the V90 PHEV to become a success

Going Mainstream

We start the 2018 reporting with Sweden, the rise and rise of the local Plug-in market continues, registrations were up 40% YoY in January, with 1.749 units registered last month, pulling the PEV Share to a record 7,6%. Will we see this market reach 10% by year end? 

Looking at the top positions, we see PHEVs taking over the top positions, with this technology representing a record 89% of Plug-in sales, with lots of D-Segment models on the Top 10, which proves that this market is now becoming mainstream, as it starts to reflect the local taste for big Ikea-furniture-carrying wagons. 

Looking at January Best Sellers, the podium spots has no big surprises, with the last year leader Volkswagen Passat GTE scoring 298 units (-46% YoY), in Second we have the Kia Optima PHEV, confirming the recent popularity of its Wagon version, while the Volvo V60 PHEV closed the podium, with a surprising 160 units, almost doubling last January result, an impressive performance, considering this model was launched in the Pliocene 2012.

Two surprises show up in the Top 10, with the S/V90 PHEV twins and the Kia Niro PHEV shining, while the BMW X5 PHEV (51 units) scored a new personal best.

Interestingly, the manufacturers ranking show Volvo (21%) biting the heels of the leader Volkswagen (22%), with the surprising Kia closing the podium, with 17% share.

VW Passat GTE 298 298 17
Kia Optima PHEV 191 191 11
Volvo V60 PHEV 160 160 9
4 Mitsu. Outlander PHEV 140 140 8
Kia Niro PHEV 113 113 6
6 Volvo S/V90 PHEV 112 112 6
7 Volvo XC60 PHEV 89 89 5
8 BMW 330e 75 75 4
9 Renault Zoe 71 71 4
10 BMW i3 53 53 3
10 Mini Countryman PHEV 53 53 3
12 BMW X5 PHEV 51 51 3
13 BMW 225xe Active Tourer 40 40 2
14 Porsche Panamera PHEV 38 38 2
15 Mercedes GLC350e 35 35 2
16 Toyota Prius PHEV 32 32 2
17 VW e-Golf 31 31 2
18 VW Golf GTE 29 29 2
19 BMW 530e 27 27 2
20 Volvo XC90 PHEV 21 21 1
  Others 90 90 5
  TOTAL 1749 1749 100

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Battery Makers 2017

Image result for Tesla Model 3 battery

Batteries had a faster production growth rate (+70%) than EV's (+58%) in 2017, as the market became more BEV-oriented and a number of models had their batteries super-sized.

Panasonic continues to lead the charge, but has dropped share, Tesla continues to pull the company boat, but this year it had the help of Toyota, thanks to the Prius Prime, this time with a decently-sized battery (For a PHEV, at least).

With the all-important Model 3 ramp up happening in 2018, expect Panasonic to continue leading throughout the year.

As for BYD, it kept the Second Place, but lost significant market share, due to production constraints, which lead the company to bet more on PHEV models than in their battery-heavy BEV versions.

LG followed the market, mostly thanks to the battery-hungry Chevrolet Bolt, but behind it, CATL was a close Fourth, with the Chinese company jumping two positions in 2017, benefitting from the Chinese PEV rise, namely the BAIC EC-Series.

If the Chinese PEV market continues to grow in 2018 like it did last year, expect CATL to replace LG in the Battery Makers podium, making two Chinese companies in the Top 3.

Battery Makers
2017 MWh
% '17
    %' 16
LG Chem


A small remark, these are provisional numbers, based in some battery-size assumptions (eg, Tesla) and should serve as an indication, not as carved in stone values.